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            航海家1号离开太阳系了吗？
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           8月
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          <p>
           <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/旅行者1号" target="_blank">
            航海家1号
           </a>
           （
           <a href="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov" target="_blank">
            Voyager 1
           </a>
           ）作为一艘无人太空探测船于1977年9月5日从佛罗里达洲的卡纳维尔角发射升空，先后位临木星，土星，正在向星际间的太空进发。
          </p>
          <div class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 610px">
           <img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d2/Voyager.jpg/766px-Voyager.jpg"/>
           <p class="wp-caption-text">
            航海家1号
           </p>
          </div>
          <p>
           而且它还携带了一张
           <a href="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/spacecraft/goldenrec.html" target="_blank">
            航海家金唱片
           </a>
           ，其中包含了115张图片和世界上的各种自然声音及音乐。
          </p>
          <p style="text-align: center">
           <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/旅行者金唱片">
            <img src="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/images/features/features2.jpg"/>
           </a>
          </p>
          <p>
           从2003年起，大家就都在等航海家1号飞离太阳系的那一天，有兴趣的人也可以在美国
           <a href="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/index.html" target="_blank">
            空气动力推进实验室
           </a>
           的网页上查到
           <a href="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/where/" target="_blank">
            它的当前的估计位置
           </a>
           。可就在大家耐心（和不耐心）等待的时候，忽然在今年8月14号M. Swisdak, J. F. Drake, and M. Opher 在 The Astrophysical Journal Letters上发表了
           <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/774/1/L8/pdf/2041-8205_774_1_L8.pdf" target="_blank">
            一篇文章
           </a>
           ，说其实去年（2012年7月27号）它就已经离开太阳系了。问题这就来了，它到底离开了，还是没离开呢？
          </p>
          <div title="Page 1">
           <div title="Page 1">
            <div>
             刚发表的这篇文章， 《A POROUS, LAYERED HELIOPAUSE》，的摘要以这句开始：
            </div>
           </div>
           <blockquote>
            <p>
             The picture of the heliopause (HP)—the boundary between the domains of the Sun and the local interstellar medium (LISM)—as a pristine interface with a large rotation in the magnetic field fails to describe recent Voyager 1 (V1) data.
            </p>
           </blockquote>
           <p>
            怎么理解呢？文章首先指出通常的假设认为
            <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/日球層頂" target="_blank">
             日球层顶
            </a>
            （Heliopause，也称为太阳风层顶）的磁场方向有大的转向，但这个模型无法解释最近航海家1号发回的数据。
            <strong>
             实事是航海家1号传回的数据至今还没有观测到这个大的磁场方向变化。
            </strong>
            从我这地球人的角度来看，如果数据是靠谱的，那没有观测到这个磁场方向的变化至少有两种可能，一个是航海家1号还没有走出日球顶层，我们接着等；另一个就是我们认为“磁场方向有大的转向”的想法不太对头。
            <br/>
            <a href="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/images/features/features1.jpg">
             <img src="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/images/features/features1.jpg"/>
            </a>
            <br/>
            文章接下来提出另一个可能的模型。这个模型指出在航海家1号附近的磁场方向变化应该很小，而且于它发回的数据相符。根据这个模型，航海家1号已经昂首阔步的走出了太阳系，并且是去年七月就已经出围了。
           </p>
           <div title="Page 1">
            <blockquote>
             <p>
              Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the global heliosphere reveal that the rotation angle of the magnetic field across the HP at V1 is small. Particle-in-cell simulations, based on cuts through the MHD model at V1’s location, suggest that the sectored region of the heliosheath (HS) produces large-scale magnetic islands that reconnect with the interstellar magnetic field while mixing LISM and HS plasma. Cuts across the simulation reveal multiple, anti-correlated jumps in the number densities of LISM and HS particles, similar to those observed, at the magnetic separatrices. A model is presented, based on both the observations and simulations, of the HP as a porous, multi-layered structure threaded by magnetic fields. This model further suggests that contrary to the conclusions of recent papers, V1 has already crossed the HP.
             </p>
            </blockquote>
           </div>
           <p>
            对此发展，美国航空航天局空气动力推进实验室的航海家项目科学家 Ed Stone 也
            <a href="http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-251" target="_blank">
             发表声明
            </a>
            ：
           </p>
           <blockquote>
            <p>
             “Details of a new model have just been published that lead the scientists who created the model to argue that NASA’s Voyager 1 spacecraft data can be consistent with entering interstellar space in 2012. In describing on a fine scale how magnetic field lines from the sun and magnetic field lines from interstellar space can connect to each other, they conclude Voyager 1 has been detecting the interstellar magnetic field since July 27, 2012. Their model would mean that the interstellar magnetic field direction is the same as that which originates from our sun.
            </p>
            <p>
             Other models envision the interstellar magnetic field draped around our solar bubble and predict that the direction of the interstellar magnetic field is different from the solar magnetic field inside. By that interpretation, Voyager 1 would still be inside our solar bubble.
            </p>
            <p>
             The fine-scale magnetic connection model will become part of the discussion among scientists as they try to reconcile what may be happening on a fine scale with what happens on a larger scale.
            </p>
            <p>
             The Voyager 1 spacecraft is exploring a region no spacecraft has ever been to before. We will continue to look for any further developments over the coming months and years as Voyager explores an uncharted frontier.”
            </p>
           </blockquote>
           <p>
            简单的说就是对于现在已有的数据，根据不同的模型我们会得到不同的结论。有的认为它出去了，有的认为没有。航海家1号正在探索一个从没有其他探测器到达过的领域。到底那个模型正确，还是它们都正确？我们还需要等更多的数据和观察后续的发展。
           </p>
           <p>
            关于航海家旅行的数据可以很容易地在
            <a href="http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/science/Voyager_Science_Data.html" target="_blank">
             这里
            </a>
            找到，但要是想得到各种模型的结果，那就要找物理专科的来了。
           </p>
           <p>
            <img src="http://abyss.uoregon.edu/~js/images/voy_traj.jpg"/>
           </p>
           <p>
            航海家用了36年时间在看似庞大的太阳系里画了一条线，物理学家需要用它传回地有限数据来判断各种可能物理模型，或提出新的模型，来探索我们的星系的边际。科学探索的魅力正在于以观测到的和已有的知识来探索未知的领域。数据分析的精彩瞬间也在于不同人对于相同的数据也可以得到不同的结论。多有趣啊！
           </p>
           <p>
            这情况和瞎子摸象有点类似，每人用自己手上摸到的感觉（数据）＋TA对世界的了解（模型）来得出结论。做自然科学的好处就是科学家不会只满足于找出各种可能的结论和不太离谱的猜测，而且会设计下一步的试验去收集数据来辨别哪个结论或猜测更靠谱。
           </p>
           <p>
            借用师祖
            <a href="http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~terry/" target="_blank">
             Terry Speed
            </a>
            关于统计的一句话来结束：
           </p>
           <blockquote>
            <p>
             In my opinion, statistics follows this formula:
            </p>
            <p>
             Experiments + Data —–(model)––&gt; results + uncertainty ==&gt; understand the world!
            </p>
            <p>
             — by Terry 3/19/2012
            </p>
            <p>
            </p>
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            汉字笔画分布
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           6月
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        <span class="updated" title="2013-06-27T09:32:37+00:00">
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          <p>
           五月份请
           <a href="http://www.weibo.com/rickjin" target="_blank">
            @rickjin
           </a>
           在北大讲了一些基本的
           <a href="http://www.weibo.com/2247080050/zvMJVdJJS" target="_blank">
            自然语言处理中的统计方法
           </a>
           时了解到
           <a href="http://baike.baidu.com/view/2187593.htm?noadapt=1" target="_blank">
            北京大学计算语言学研究所
           </a>
           在计算机中文语言处理方面做的很多工作。在聊起
           <a href="http://www.weibo.com/rickjin" target="_blank">
            @rickjin
           </a>
           写的《正态分布的前世今生》时，无意中谈到计算语言所的张化瑞老师。
          </p>
          <p>
           机缘巧合的发现原来张老师和我办公室在同一个楼里，并且一起在幼儿院参加过亲子运动会，于是和张老师约了次午饭。其间了解到了一些关于中文有趣知识，其中关于汉字的比划分布的研究很是有趣。
          </p>
          <p>
           谈起汉字比划分布，就不得不从
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024" target="_blank">
            张学文
           </a>
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024" target="_blank">
            老师
           </a>
           的博文：
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024&amp;do=blog&amp;id=3605" target="_blank">
            汉字的数学美–笔画与数量的数学公式
           </a>
           开始。文中对辞海中汉字的比划分布的研究。
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            为了便于统计，我们用了1987年印的1979年版的辞海。
            <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024&amp;do=blog&amp;id=3605" target="_blank">
             表1.
            </a>
            是从词海中统计出来的不同笔画的汉字的个数。它显示出笔画过少或者过多的汉字都比较少，9-14画的汉字最多。
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           <img src="http://i.imgur.com/SNtvNgV.png"/>
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            研究发现，笔画x与汉字数量y的关系符合数学上的
            <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/对数正态分布" target="_blank">
             对数正态分布函数
            </a>
            。其公式是公式中16262是汉字（辞海）的总个数，μ是笔画数x的自然对数的平均值，其值为2.4739，σ是笔画的自然对数的标准差，其值为0.3827。
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024&amp;do=blog&amp;id=3605">
            <img src="http://i.imgur.com/XXIysCg.jpg"/>
           </a>
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            认识汉字的这种规律显然是我们对汉字研究的一个进步。人们对汉字体形之美已经欣赏多年，汉字蕴藏的数学之美也该当让大家知道。
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           看了这篇文章又浏览了
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024" target="_blank">
            张学文
           </a>
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024" target="_blank">
            老师
           </a>
           在他的博客
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/home.php?mod=space&amp;uid=2024" target="_blank">
            熵.复杂程度.统计.气象.水
           </a>
           中的其他文章后，我不禁为做气象的张先生对科学的兴趣和数据的执着而感动。
          </p>
          <p>
           张化瑞老师同时还发给我一篇他写的文章《汉字笔画数分布的一个统一公式》，其中用幂正态分布来拟合了《印刷通用汉字字形表》、《辞海》、Unicode 2.0 和Big5汉字进行了验证。结果发现，整体上都比较相符。拟合分布的一个参数还可能与汉字结构大概在一维和二维之间相关，真是有意思啊。这就不细表了。
          </p>
          <p>
           我现在忽然对汉字的比划很感兴趣了，同时也好奇到哪找个数据库其中纪录每一个汉字的比划呢？在小孩上中文学校时遇到过
           <a href="http://www.yes-chinese.com/tzg/" target="_blank">
            中文天下
           </a>
           这个网站，可以打印如下的田字格，所以这个一个关于汉字比划的数据库一定存在。
           <br/>
           <a href="http://www.yes-chinese.com/tzg/">
            <img src="http://i.imgur.com/ArMC8Oy.png"/>
           </a>
          </p>
          <p>
           高人们给我指条明路吧。
          </p>
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            白天不懂夜的黑
           </a>
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          <p>
           大数据时代来了，但什么样的问题才需要大数据呢？我觉得答案挺直接的：大问题，没法简单抽样或抽样也没法解决的问题。
          </p>
          <p>
           今天很火爆的一张图是NASA用2.5兆兆字节(terabytes)卫星数据画的，地球的全球夜间灯光亮度图。
          </p>
          <div class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 710px">
           <a href="http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/79000/79765/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.3600x1800.jpg">
            <img src="http://i.imgur.com/f6thJ.jpg"/>
           </a>
           <p class="wp-caption-text">
            Credit: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NASA)
           </p>
          </div>
          <p>
           数据是NASA的
           <a href="http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/viirs.html" rel="bookmark" target="_blank">
            Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite
           </a>
           在今年4月和10月收集的，然后要经过一系列处理，去除极光，森林着火的火光，月光反射，等等各种光线，剩下的是估计的城市光线。
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            The night time view of Earth was made possible by the “day-night band” of the
            <a href="http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/viirs.html" rel="bookmark" target="_blank">
             Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite
            </a>
            . VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses filtering techniques to observe dim signals such as gas flares, auroras, wildfires, city lights, and reflected moonlight. In this case, auroras, fires, and other stray light have been removed to emphasize the city lights.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           这个我觉得是大数据的一个强项。要画这么精确，高分辨率的图，没有所有的数据和认真的分析是没法想象的。NASA提供的最高分辨率的图在这里(
           <a href="http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/79000/79765/dnb_land_ocean_ice.2012.54000x27000_geo.tif" target="_blank">
            384 MB, TIFF, 54000×27000
           </a>
           )，没有足够内存建议别碰。不过NASA搞了个灰常了得的幻灯片
           <a href="http://www.flickr.com//photos/gsfc/sets/72157632175125121/show/" target="_blank">
            Black Marble- City Lights 2012
           </a>
           。值得一看。
          </p>
          <p>
           以前这夜间图可是只有军方卫星才能看到的，现在也可以娱乐大众了。
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            A handful of scientists have observed earthly night lights over the past four decades with military satellites and astronaut photography. But in 2012, the view became significantly clearer. The
            <a href="http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/" target="_blank">
             Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership
            </a>
            (NPP) satellite — launched in October 2011 by NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Department of Defense — carries a low-light sensor that can distinguish night lights with six times better spatial resolution and 250 times better resolution of lighting levels (dynamic range) than before. Also, because Suomi NPP is a civilian science satellite, data is available to scientists within minutes to hours of acquisition.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           白天的卫星数据我接触多了，但晚上的一直是望而却步。大数据来了，从原始数据到最后的图，每一步都有统计方法在支持。到最后，白天和黑夜的分别也不是那么明显了，那些方法还叫不叫统计也不重要了。
          </p>
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           <a class="entry-title" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/2012/08/07/%e5%a5%bd%e7%9a%84%e5%92%8c%e4%b8%8d%e8%b4%9f%e8%b4%a3%e4%bb%bb%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%9c%a8%e3%80%8a%e8%87%aa%e7%84%b6%e3%80%8b%e6%9d%82%e5%bf%97%e4%ba%89%e8%ae%ae%e6%96%87/" rel="bookmark" title="好的和不负责任的数据分析在《自然》杂志争议文章中的完全体现">
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           07
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          <p>
           引起热议的《自然》杂志新闻文章
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109" target="_blank">
            Why great Olympic feats raise suspicions
           </a>
           今天有了新进展。杂志的主编
           <strong>
            <em>
             Tim Appenzeller
            </em>
           </strong>
           <em>
            Chief Magazine Editor,
           </em>
           Nature 和
           <strong>
            <em>
             Philip Campbell
            </em>
           </strong>
           <em>
            Editor-in-Chief,
           </em>
           Nature 发了说明
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/ed_note_continued" target="_blank">
            an editor’s note
           </a>
           并向读者和叶诗文道歉 (这是11:40am EST, August 6, 2012我看到的)
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <h2>
            <strong>
             EDITORS’ NOTE (continued)
            </strong>
           </h2>
           <p>
            <em>
             The news story was triggered by a debate that was already active, concerning the scale of Ye Shiwen’s victory. Such debates have arisen over many outstanding feats in the past, by athletes from many countries, and it is wrong to suggest, as many of the critics do, that we singled her out because of her nationality.
            </em>
           </p>
           <p>
            <em>
             The story’s intention as an Explainer was to examine how science can help resolve debates over extraordinary performances, not to examine those performance statistics in detail. Several analyses done by others convinced us that it was fair to characterize Ye’s performance as ‘anomalous’ — in the sense that it was statistically unusual. But we acknowledge that the combination of errors discussed above and the absence of a more detailed discussion of the statistics (which with hindsight we regret) gave the impression that we were supporting accusations against her, even though this was emphatically not our intention. For that, we apologize to our readers and to Ye Shiwen.
            </em>
           </p>
           <p>
            <strong>
             <em>
              Tim Appenzeller
             </em>
            </strong>
            <em>
             Chief Magazine Editor,
            </em>
            Nature
            <br/>
            <strong>
             <em>
              Philip Campbell
             </em>
            </strong>
            <em>
             Editor-in-Chief,
            </em>
            Nature
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           前两天我也对原文的统计分析
           <a href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/2012/08/02/nature-why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions/" target="_blank">
            有质疑
           </a>
           ，连饶毅写了
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-2237-598917.html" target="_blank">
            致《自然》杂志总编的信
           </a>
           。看到
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/Lai_Jiang" target="_blank">
            好的统计分析
           </a>
           把烂文章指点的体无完肤，还是挺有感触的。
          </p>
          <p>
           但是我还是对总编的中的一句话不解：
           <strong>
            “
            <em>
             Several analyses done by others convinced us that it was fair to characterize Ye’s performance as ‘anomalous’ — in the sense that it was statistically unusual.”
            </em>
           </strong>
          </p>
          <p>
           我希望这 “fair”是一个笔误, 但或许不是呢。如果主编被说服相信叶诗文的表现是离谱的，那主编们能不能指出是那个分析让你们相信叶诗文的表现不正常呢？我有15年以上在大学中学习，教授，和研究统计的经历，但我怎么从评论中看到的大多是指出叶诗文的表现没有不正常呢？
          </p>
          <p>
           希望你们这一次不再为没有包括详细的统计分析而后悔！
          </p>
          <p>
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        </header>
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        <span class="post-format-icon">
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        <span class="updated" title="2012-08-02T15:40:52+00:00">
        </span>
        <div class="entry-container fix">
         <div class="entry entry-content fix">
          <p>
           8/9/2012，更新：今天收到《自然》杂志自动生成邮件：
          </p>
          <p>
           The following post you wrote on the Nature News website has been hidden by the moderator in accordance with our terms and conditions.
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            To editor Brian Owens:
            <br/>
            I wonder the so called ‘performance profiling’, as mentioned in the title of this article, could be used to judge if the editor was drunk on duty or is lack of basic knowledge of Statistics.
           </p>
           <p>
            If this is article used to highlight what so called science with crappy data analysis cannot tell us, congratulations! You passed with A+.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           This comment contains abusive language and as such breaches our Terms of Service.
          </p>
          <p>
           –
           <em>
            Nature News
           </em>
           editors
          </p>
          <p>
           －－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
          </p>
          <p>
           本以为可以停下来对数字的兴趣来看几天奥运，但看了
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/index.html" target="_blank">
            Nature杂志
           </a>
           的一篇文章， “
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109" target="_blank">
            Why great Olympic feats raise suspicions, ‘Performance profiling’ could help to dispel doubts
           </a>
           “，后还是忍不住写点什么。
          </p>
          <p>
           看了文章马上让我想起这样的书目：
           <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Damned-Lies-Statistics-Untangling-Politicians/dp/0520219783/" target="_blank">
            Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists
           </a>
           and
           <a href="http://www.amazon.com/More-Damned-Lies-Statistics-Numbers/dp/0520238303/" target="_blank">
            More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues
           </a>
           .
          </p>
          <p>
           NAUTRE, 你叫人情何以堪？我现在还是不把你分类到新闻媒体之列，但或许你很快就证明我是错的。
          </p>
          <div class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 410px">
           <img src="http://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/7.5628.1343835371!/image/149445070%20reduced.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_400/149445070%20reduced.jpg"/>
           <p class="wp-caption-text">
            L. NEAL /AFP / GETTY IMAGES
           </p>
          </div>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            <strong>
             Was Ye’s performance anomalous?
            </strong>
            <br/>
            Yes. Her time in the 400 IM was more than 7 seconds faster than her time in the same event at a major meet in July. But what really raised eyebrows was her showing in the last 50 metres, which she swam faster than US swimmer Ryan Lochte did when he won gold in the men’s 400 IM on Saturday, with the second-fastest time ever for that event.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           比较叶诗文和罗切特在400米混合泳的最后50米时间太误导。 这样的分析写新闻报道还可以，要鳌头吗！可稍微有点统计常识的人都不会只用这样简单的数字比较来支持严格的观点的。 有位读者
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/comment-47487" target="_blank">
            Lai Jiang
           </a>
           评论的很到位：
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            First, to compare a player’s performance increase, the author used Ye’s 400m IM time and her performance at the World championship 2011, which are 4:28.43 and 4:35.15 respectively, and reached the conclusion that she has got an “anomalous” increase by ~7 sec (6.72 sec). In fact she’s previous personal best was 4:33.79 at Asian Games 2010
            <sup>
             <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#fnad852dd0f9344e4c9394fd447fd36629">
              1
             </a>
            </sup>
            . This leads to a 5.38 sec increase. In a sport event that 0.1 sec can be the difference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason that 5.38 sec can be treated as 7 sec. ……
           </p>
           <p>
            Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50m to Ye’s is a textbook example of what we call to cherry pick your data. Yes, Lochte is slower than Ye in the last 50m, but (as pointed out by Zhenxi) Lochte has a huge lead in the first 300m so that he chose to not push himself too hard to conserve energy for latter events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the “use one’s best efforts to win a match” requirement that the BWF has recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another topic worth discussing, probably not in Nature, though). On the contrary, Ye is trailing behind after the first 300m and relies on freestyle, which she has an edge, to win the game. Failing to mention this strategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 sec faster (4:05.18) over all than Ye creates the illusion that a woman swam faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Put aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that implies the reader that something fishy is going on.
           </p>
           <p>
            Fourth, another example of cherry picking. In the same event there are four male swimmers that swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 sec)3 and Ye (28.93 sec)4: Hagino (28.52 sec), Phelps (28.44 sec), Horihata (27.87 sec) and Fraser-Holmes (28.35 sec). As it turns out if we are just talking about the last 50m in a 400m IM, Lochter would not have been the example to use if I were the author. What kind of scientific rigorousness that author is trying to demonstrate here? Is it logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume he leads in every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science works.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           我是真心希望象Nature这样的顶尖杂志能认真些。或许Nature
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/comment-47526" target="_blank">
            线上新闻主编的回答
           </a>
           可以解释：
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            We appreciate that the case of Ye Shiwen is a sensitive one for some readers. However, I would like to point out that this story was not intended to insinuate that Ye is guilty of anything. As we point out in the first paragraph, she has never failed a drug test and so is the rightful Olympic champion.
           </p>
           <p>
            We wanted to use the controversy as a way to highlight what science can and can’t tell us with respect to athletes’ performance. We have done similar stories before, for example in the case of South African runner
            <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090820/full/news.2009.850.html">
             Caster Semenya
            </a>
           </p>
           <p>
            Congratulations to Ye Shiwen on her incredible win!
           </p>
           <p>
            Brian Owens
            <br/>
            Online news editor
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           我怀疑文章标题中的’performance profiling’ 方法是否可以用来猜测主编是在审这稿时喝醉了呢，还是缺乏基本的统计知识。如果这文章是象主编所说的用来展示什么是用糊涂数据分析支持的科学不能发现的，恭喜你！你的表现太好了。
          </p>
          <p>
           归根结底，数字只是数字，但每个数字后面都有它的故事。别只看到数字的表面标价（¥6 或 $1）!
          </p>
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            希格斯玻色子与5σ
           </a>
          </h2>
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             数据分析
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           7月
          </span>
          <span class="day">
           06
          </span>
          <span class="year">
           2012
          </span>
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        </span>
        <div class="entry-container fix">
         <div class="entry entry-content fix">
          <p>
           <strong>
            [更新，2012年7月14日]
           </strong>
           ：推荐对数据分析有兴趣的听一下这神粒子的声音（
           <a href="http://lhcsound.hep.ucl.ac.uk/page_sounds_higgs/Higgs.html" target="_blank">
            Listen to the decay of a god particle
           </a>
           ）。一群粒子物理学家，编曲家，软件工程师，和艺术家
           <a href="http://lhcsound.hep.ucl.ac.uk/page_about/About.html" target="_blank">
            用粒子对撞机的数据编成的曲目
           </a>
           。另类的数据展示！太强大了。
          </p>
          <p>
           2012年7月4日，欧洲核子研究组织（CERN， the
           <a href="http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/About/Name-en.html" title="more about the CERN name">
            European Organization for Nuclear Research
           </a>
           ）的
           <a href="http://www.huanqiukexue.com/html/newqqkj/newwl/2012/0704/22320.html" target="_blank">
            物理学家们宣布
           </a>
           发现在欧洲大型强子对撞机中一种疑似
           <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/希格斯玻色子" target="_blank">
            希格斯玻色子
           </a>
           （
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson" target="_blank">
            Higgs Boson
           </a>
           ）。
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            ［抄自wikipedia］：希格斯玻色子是
            <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E7%B2%92%E5%AD%90%E7%89%A9%E7%90%86%E5%AD%B8" title="粒子物理學">
             粒子物理學
            </a>
            的
            <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/標準模型">
             标准模型
            </a>
            所预言的一种
            <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E7%B2%92%E5%AD%90" title="基本粒子">
             基本粒子
            </a>
            。
            <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/標準模型">
             标准模型
            </a>
            预言了62种基本粒子，希格斯玻色子是最后一种有待被实验证实的粒子。在希格斯玻色子是以物理学者
            <a href="http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BD%BC%E5%BE%97%C2%B7%E5%B8%8C%E6%A0%BC%E6%96%AF" title="彼得·希格斯">
             彼得·希格斯
            </a>
            命名。由于它对于基本粒子的基础性质扮演极为重要的角色，因此在大众传媒中又被称为「上帝粒子」。
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           近50年来，物理学家们一直在追寻希格斯玻色子，因为它的发现将使粒子物理的标准模型得到完善。下面的小片子通俗地讲了一下什么是希格斯玻色子。
          </p>
          <p>
           <object align="middle" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" height="400" width="480">
            <param name="src" value="http://player.youku.com/player.php/sid/XNDIzNDExMTUy/v.swf">
            </param>
            <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true">
            </param>
            <param name="quality" value="high">
            </param>
            <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always">
            </param>
            <embed align="middle" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" height="400" quality="high" src="http://player.youku.com/player.php/sid/XNDIzNDExMTUy/v.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480">
            </embed>
           </object>
          </p>
          <p>
           作为只有高中物理水平的民科，我也能从物理学家们在宣布这发现时的激动（看下面视频）中感到这发现的重大。
          </p>
          <p>
           <object align="middle" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" height="400" width="480">
            <param name="src" value="http://player.youku.com/player.php/sid/XNDIzNjIwOTY4/v.swf">
            </param>
            <param name="allowfullscreen" value="true">
            </param>
            <param name="quality" value="high">
            </param>
            <param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always">
            </param>
            <embed align="middle" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" height="400" quality="high" src="http://player.youku.com/player.php/sid/XNDIzNjIwOTY4/v.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480">
            </embed>
           </object>
          </p>
          <p>
           除了表达对科学家的敬仰外，我也对其中提到的 5σ 很感兴趣。既然祖师爷
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Tukey" target="_blank">
            John Tukey
           </a>
           说过
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            The
            <em>
             best
            </em>
            thing about being a
            <em>
             statistician
            </em>
            is that you get to play in everyone’s backyard，
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           我倍受鼓励的来看看这 5σ 到底是怎么回事。视频中的点睛之笔：
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            <em>
             We have observed a new boson with a mass of 125.3 +- 0.6 GeV at 4.9 σ significance.
            </em>
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           念玩后大家鼓掌拥抱，热泪盈眶。一番周折后，我才终于找到了CERN的
           <strong>
            <a href="https://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1459565" target="_blank">
             原版视频
            </a>
           </strong>
           （将近两小时，值得看看）。
          </p>
          <p>
           开始时只是想搞清楚这 5σ 怎么回事（35：10,第84页），没想到听到一堆统计词汇“multivariate analysis technique”，“p-value”,”sensitivity”, 等等劈头盖脸的飞来。最给力的是 Rolf Heuer 讲了一些用
           <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boosting" target="_blank">
            Boosted decision tree
           </a>
           来提高分类器准确性的过程（18：20,第33页）。不出所料，研究中用到了很前沿的数据分析方法。老祖师果然没错。看来欲知其中细节，得看数据分析啊！
          </p>
          <p>
           比较遗憾的是我比较看不懂的是
           <a href="http://www.huanqiukexue.com/html/newqqkj/newwl/2012/0704/22320.html" target="_blank">
            环球科学
           </a>
           <a href="http://www.huanqiukexue.com/html/newqqkj/newwl/2012/0704/22320.html" target="_blank">
            （
           </a>
           <a href="http://www.huanqiukexue.com/html/newqqkj/newwl/2012/0704/22320.html" target="_blank">
            科
           </a>
           <a href="http://www.huanqiukexue.com/html/newqqkj/newwl/2012/0704/22320.html" target="_blank">
            学美国人中文版）的文章
           </a>
           “希格斯粒子现身LHC？”最后对 5σ 的解释：
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            估计总体参数落在某一区间内，可能犯错误的概率为显著性水平，用α表示。1-α 为置信度或置信水平，其表明了区间估计的可靠性。显著性水平不是一个固定不变的数字，其越大，则原假设被拒绝的可能性愈大，文章中置信度为5σ（5个标准误差），说明原假设的可信程度达到了99.99997%
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           好像这是把假设检验和置信区间绞在一起解释了。本来看了视频还我还觉着我这物理外行也看懂了，现在又被解释糊涂了。谁能看懂给解释一下？
          </p>
          <p>
          </p>
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             科学
            </a>
            ,
            <a href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/category/%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%e5%ba%94%e7%94%a8/" rel="category tag">
             统计应用
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             3 Responses »
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         <div class="date">
          <span class="month">
           10月
          </span>
          <span class="day">
           07
          </span>
          <span class="year">
           2011
          </span>
         </div>
        </header>
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        <span class="post-format-icon">
        </span>
        <span class="updated" title="2011-10-07T18:30:40+00:00">
        </span>
        <div class="entry-container fix">
         <div class="entry entry-content fix">
          <p>
           今天偶然在
           <a href="http://news.sina.com.cn/m/2011-09-30/113923244615.shtml" target="_blank">
            新浪新闻
           </a>
           上读到这个标题，吓了一跳（当然“真的吗？”是我后加的）。文中提到:
          </p>
          <p>
           “
           <em>
            北京时间9月30日上午消息，美国《科学》杂志撰文称，从Twitter上发布的微博来看，全世界人们普遍承受着巨大的工作压力。
           </em>
          </p>
          <p>
           <em>
            康奈尔大学的研究者对84个国家240万用户最近两年发表的微博进行了研究，并指出每一天人们都在快乐中醒来，可只要一开始工作，好心情就会荡然无存。
           </em>
           ”
          </p>
          <p>
           前几天我
           <a href="http://taoshistat.wordpress.com/2011/10/02/learning-from-twitter/" target="_blank">
            刚闲扯
           </a>
           了关于
           <a href="http://www.redlog.net/" target="_blank">
            Scott A. Golder
           </a>
           和
           <a href="http://sdl.soc.cornell.edu/mwm/" target="_blank">
            Michael W. Macy
           </a>
           在《科学》上发表的
           <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6051/1878.abstract" target="_blank">
            用twitter数据分析关于人的情绪与一天时间变化及其他的关系
           </a>
           （以及有趣的实际演示网页
           <a href="http://timeu.se/" target="_blank">
            http://timeu.se/
           </a>
           ）。虽然我的脑筋很差，但是还依稀记得这篇文章的一些细节。下面是原文中关于心情和工作的部分（1880页）和数据图形（PA 是 positive affect, 正面影响；NA是 negative affect, 负面影响），大家来看看翻译和原文有无出入？
          </p>
          <p>
           “Although the shape of the rhythm was consistent across days, PA levels were generally higher on Saturday and Sunday (M = 0.058) than at any time during the weekdays (M = 0.054, P &lt; 0.001), which points
           <strong>
            to possible effects of work-related stress,
           </strong>
           less sleep, and earlier wake time. PA decreased midmorning (at the start of the work day) and increased in the evening (at the end of the work day).
           <strong>
            However
           </strong>
           ,
           <strong>
            the fact that the shape of the affective cycle was similar on weekends and weekdays points to sleep and the biological clock as important determinants of affect, regardless of variations in environmental stress.
           </strong>
           ”
          </p>
          <p style="text-align: center;">
           <a href="http://i.imgur.com/Xi006.jpg">
            <img src="http://i.imgur.com/Xi006.jpg"/>
           </a>
          </p>
          <p>
           原文强调的是人的生物时钟的影响，而不是工作与否。在信息爆炸的今天，断章取义太容易也太误导了吧。
          </p>
          <p>
           作为新闻媒体，你们有木有责任尽量保证文章的准确性和全面性呢？有木有？简单的翻译也要有职业精神啊。请不要把手机山寨成微波炉！
          </p>
          <p>
           作为读者，我们是不是要去调查每一个故事背后的数据和分析的准确性呢？这当然不可能了，但我们至少可以以科学的态度去审视和相信（或怀疑）我们看到的故事。
          </p>
          <p>
           转载过超过两次的报道，不管你信不信，反正我是不信！
          </p>
          <hr/>
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            施涛
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          at 18:30
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